Greyhound profits

Well, at last I summoned the courage to actually sit down, clear my head and take my time in writing this article. Greyhound profits? What is that all about?

Very few people will use the words greyhounds and profit in the same sentence, and probably for a good reason. Greyhound racing is often described as “throw of the dice”, apparently referring to both its unpredictability and the fact that in the UK all races have 6 declared runners, comparable to the 6 sides of a dice. How would anyone think it is possible to predict the outcome of such blisteringly fast event – the greyhound race?

The greyhound is the second fastest land animal on the planet, outperformed only by the cheetah, although to be fair, the greyhound can sustain its top speed for much longer than its wild counterpart. With top speed of over 60 km. per hour, or 18 m. per second, reaching top speed in less than 10 metres, and burning enough energy (during a single race) that could boil a glass of water, is it a surprise that people find dog racing so fascinating?

If one however thinks about it, is it really that much different from any other sports betting market? Every experienced punter (in fact any sensible person) will tell you that there are no certainties in any market, there are only probabilities and differences of opinion that make placing of bets possible. With football and horse racing being the dominant force in the sport markets, greyhound racing is left so far behind, that even the second fastest animal can’t catch up from there…

Now, let’s examine what are the actual advantages of greyhound racing as a betting market.

First, the field size is fixed to 6 selections. Field means the number of runners, for those of you that are new to racing. So it is a 6 outcome event. That can be only advantageous if you compare it to a market with more outcomes, the obvious one of course being horse racing, where the field can consist of more than 20 runners. Of course when compared to the 3 outcomes in football, for example-the home win, the draw and the away win-then 6 outcomes suddenly becomes a disadvantage. So let’s just say that this advantage is relative, it is more pronounced for the racing markets rather than the sport markets in general.

Second, greyhound racing is not dependant on the weather - no “going” and turf conditions to worry about, events are run in a controlled environment with almost no significant weather related variables to factor in.

Third, extremely fast turnover of invested capital (fancy term for money wagered)-from placing the bet to collecting your winnings the time that elapses can be as short as 2 minutes, assuming you place the bet just before the off and you do it online with a betting exchange (where settlement is really fast, barring accidents or dead-heats).

And finally, the most significant advantage - volume. No other market offers so many events daily, greyhound racing is “on” every single day of the week, and that includes weekends and even public holidays. Most days there are over 60-70 quality races to choose from (can be even more than 100, if every single race is included the number will be even higher), with a morning, afternoon and evening card, 2 meetings for the morning and the afternoon cards (with 10-12 races each), and 3-4 meetings for the evening card, plus additional evening meetings. Races are no more than 10 minutes apart, enough time to have a look at next race’s card and try to solve “the puzzle”. That is an absolutely unprecedented volume by any standards. Or should we say, from a punter’s point of view, “spoilt for choice”?

So far so good.

How about types of bets that can be used. Well, again, the choice is great. If we use the betting exchanges, or let’s say Betfair, since they are the only one that can be actually used with the greyhound markets, we have the following options:

Win market - win bet, lay bet, dutch win bet

Place market - win bet, lay bet, dutch win bet

Forecast market - win bet, lay bet, dutch win bet

There are additional bets on televised races and higher quality races, but those are not available regularly. Of course, with Betfair, there is the trading option as well, in the few minutes before the race starts.

Bookmakers offer only win, each way, forecast, tricast and trap challenge bets. It must be said straight away that bookmakers’ overround is so significant that there is no value whatsoever placing bets with them. Very rarely there will be a selection that will be offered at the same price with the bookies as it is on Betfair, and those are the only occasions that require having an account with bookmakers. The only way to be profitable is to use the best possible price, and 98% of the time that would be Betfair’s price.

What makes greyhound markets unique is the fact that early prices are not available for the average daily races. Odds become available between 5 and 3 minutes before the off, sometimes even a bit later. This offers really unique opportunities in finding value bets at good prices. Now the obvious question then will be – hot to find value bets?

Value can be defined as a discrepancy between selection’s price and selection’s true probability of winning. The bigger the discrepancy the bigger the value is. The price (or the odds) are the objective part of the equation, while the true probability is something quite subjective. Bookmakers traditionally are very good at defining true winning probabilities, but even they get it wrong quite regularly, which proves how hard a task it actually is. Unfortunately there is no shortcut to success here, as without value being profitable is impossible, and to find value requires hard work and some experience in any given market.

Luckily there is a finite number of factors to consider when analyzing a race card. The easiest way to go about it would be to make a list of all the variables, assign a numerical value to each one (say from 1 to 10) and then this could serve as a map to finding value in the greyhound markets, or as a matter of fact in any Betfair market. Some people call this handicapping, or odds compiling (term used by the bookies, or to be more precise - by their trading teams).

Let’s list some variables that merit inclusion in the greyhound handicapping list. They will be listed in no particular order of importance.

1.Track. Different tracks have slightly different risk/consistency profiles. It is pointless to speculate why would that be, but historical data is out there for everyone to examine and to prove statistically this statement.

2. Grade. Also could be referred to as class. For the daily racing grade will vary from OR (open race) to A1 and all the way to A12. Again certain grades produce more inconsistent results than others (of course in conjunction with other variables rather than on its own).

3. Draw. It could be very important, especially in relation to the other runners and their style of racing, also important for assessing chances of clear run, hence performing to expectations. Of course an element of luck is required in most cases. Is there pace in adjacent traps, which could cause crowding, balking etc. If two fast starters are next to each other, that is obviously not ideal scenario. Or if a runner has good finishing pace, but can’t get a clear run in the later stages, a win will be much less likely.

4. Distance. Shorter distances tend to be riskier. By the way the same applies to horse racing. It is quite obvious - with such speeds any small mistake can be vital, and the shorter the distance the harder to make up for a mistake. Hence longer distances tend to produce better results, in terms of performing according to expectations and form.

5. Speed. Some runners are faster than others, although it is the grader’s job to make sure that all runners are closely matched. Every race card contains the last 5 races’ speed ratings, both sectional and race (adjusted according to the going). Speed is not the holy grail of handicapping, but still a formidably important factor when combined with all the other ones.

6. Upgrading/downgrading. When a runner performs very well he is upgraded so that he can face better opposition, and vice versa – when performance is under par, a downgrade follows so that competitiveness is ensured at all times. This makes handicapping a bit harder, simply because there is no simple answer to the question-will the change of grade influence the race result in any certain way.

7. Current form. The average race card contains details of the last 5 races, but those can stretch too far back in time, so current form would be based on the last 2-3 races only, provided they are run over the same distance.

8. Days since last race. This can be quite controversial, does longer rest period mean possible better run, or has the selection become “rustier”. If a runner has had a rest 3 times longer than usual, probably only the trainer and the owner really know what the true chances of a win will be. Or maybe the longer rest is a carefully planned gamble, ensuring form readers will be caught out at big odds. Owners or connections or whatever we want to call them have to pay for the keep of the animals so it only makes sense that if they have a chance to “outsmart” the bookmakers and the layers on Betfair, they will by all means do so. This is not uncommon in horse racing as well, one of the most extreme examples of all times can be found here.

9. Track knowledge. If a runner knows the track well, and another one doesn’t, it is quite obvious which one will have an advantage.

10. Running style. Does the selection rail, run in the middle (M in card), or run wide (W in card). Also, how does it compare to the others in terms of the different stages of the race - early stage, middle stage, closing stage. Does it have early pace, middle pace, or does it finish like a proverbial train and snatches late victories. If early pace is expected, will it last home, especially over longer distances, too much early pace could be suicidal, as it burns all the energy supplies causing sudden loss of pace and the late finishers can swoop by in the last metres (or on the line, causing nail biting photo-finishes, which certainly isn’t punters’ definition of happy days).

11. Official ratings and tipster opinions. The mother of all greyhound picks and ratings is the Racing Post (both paper and website), but other newspapers have tips and picks as well. Now for better or worse a dog can’t read and is blissfully unaware of his official ratings, so obviously this has no direct effect on the probabilities of winning, but has a definite effect on the price, and since we are examining both price and probabilities (looking for discrepancies, or value, as already defined above) then we should definitely factor in any popular sources of opinion when handicapping greyhounds. If we fancy a selection, but it is heavily tipped by the Racing post, for example, most probably there will be no value in backing it, or at least we should take extra care what is the “cut off” price for us to get involved, as the mass public will be likely to cause a stampede and price will tumble. So it would be wise to either get in early at value price, or if the price is too short give it a miss altogether, value prices should be ensured at all times in order to be profitable.

Probably other variables can be include in the handicapping process as well, the above list is by no means comprehensive, but can serve as a good starting point. It must have become clear by now that finding value is no easy feat and requires time, work, patience, knowledge, all in different proportions. With experience however the process can become much faster and easier. The true key to profits is being selective, and that is what is great about greyhound racing – the sheer number of daily races means that strong selections can and will be found if one takes the time and effort to become good at assessing value. It is much harder to find value in a slow market with huge number of participants, like the football markets, for example. With those, odds are almost in perfect proportion to the true probabilities and additional strategies have to be deployed when searching for value there. But whatever the market, opportunities will always be there for the taking and whoever is willing to put in the work will reap the benefits. The best part is that the skill set in question is transferable to other sport markets, so over time a small portfolio of profitable markets can be created.

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